The Way
They'll Finish
By
AutumnSpectacle.com staff E-mail
Follow AutumnSpectacle on
June 30, 2009
The
drama that is college football is unique and unmatched.
It's cut-throat. It's intense. It's unexpected.
One
week's surprises give way to a new storyline, which will be redirected
when the next week plays out. The splendor of the Autumn
Spectacle unfolds beginning on Labor Day weekend and doesn't come to a
close until Championship Saturday. And then, there's still the
traditional bowl season...
College
football places a premium on playing a good
schedule and winning them
all - or else. The
2008 season was living proof that if you lose, then you're taking your
chances. Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, USC, Penn State and
Texas Tech were all forced to await their fates after faltering during
the autumn.
But that
season is over and hope springs eternal. What will happen in 2009
- the 140th edition of the Grand Ol' Game?
Before we
reveal our top 25, let us clarify that this is not a preseason
poll. You can get those anywhere. We're telling you where
teams will end up in the final USA Today Coaches Poll on January 8,
2010. This is our fourth annual Top 25 - The Way They'll Finish.
Our track
record has been respectable and we've been known to predict the turning
point games of the year. For instance, before teams even reported
for two-a-days last year, we told you that Oregon State would knock off
top-ranked USC on a Thursday night in Corvallis, that Tulsa would
garner national attention and that JoePa's Nittany Lions would once
again be a player in the national title hunt.
In 2006, we
predicted that Ohio State would run the table and win
it all. We were one game short, just like
the
Buckeyes.
In
2007, we nailed it. While most
publications picked USC, we boldly proclaimed
LSU would bring it all home and they held up their end by capturing
their second Crystal Ball in five seasons.
Last
season, we were oh-so-close again. During the 2008 summer, we
predicted Oklahoma would knock off Florida in the BCS title game and
allow Bob Stoops to get the recently-attached Big Game Monkey off his
back. The Gators kept us from accurately predicting our second
straight national champion.
Now,
it’s time to look at 2009.
At
AutumnSpectacle.com, we take all factors into account: returning
starters, returning coaches, schedules, schedule sequences, mascots
(live vs. costumed), battle cries, stadiums, fight songs, the
ever-so-vital traditions, karma, mojo, juju and the alignment of the
stars in the universe. After taking it all into consideration, it
is clear that the Eyes of Texas are upon us.
So, get your Hook 'Em sign ready. The rest of the
country
will again understand that - in the 2009 college football season - if
you mess with Bevo, then you'll get his Horns.
1. Texas
Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense
2009 feels
eerily like 2005 all over again. An epic team who pundits can't
say enough about are the prohibitive favorites to win it all.
Back then, it was USC and this year it's Florida. Both times,
it's a burnt orange serenade inside the Rose Bowl that closes out the
college football season.
With Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley and the rest, the Longhorns are
primed for a national title run. UT cruises through a
sugary-sweet cupcake schedule that would make Dolly Madison jealous.
And similar to their inevitable foe in Pasadena, the Horns only have a
couple of potential pitfalls. After they exact revenge on Oklahoma for
2008's BCS rankings, their entire fate comes down to their trip to
Oklahoma State on Halloween. A win there sends them to an undefeated
autumn. If they don't survive, then there is a serious
possibility of a rerun of last season's 3-way Big 12 South tie and BCS
rankings tiebreaker.
We believe Bevo finishes it off this time and the Horn Nation
will be ready to elect Mack Brown as governor despite his incessant
whining.
2. Florida
Returning starters: 8 offense / 11
defense
Conventional wisdom picks the Gators to capture their third title in
four years. And, we believe UF will make it back to the
championship game. Florida has been
remarkably
consistent under Urban Meyer and this year will be no different.
His spread option attack will be undergirded by a fierce defense that
amazingly returns ALL 22 PLAYERS FROM LAST YEAR'S TWO-DEEP!
To go along with the talent level is the schedule. While Florida
State continues to be iffy, the remainder of the Gators' non-conference
is, as always, marshmallow soft. Al E. Gator doesn't have to face
Ole Miss or Alabama in conference play and the SEC East is a one-team
division. So, they have a one-game season: at LSU on October
10. Not only is that their lone predictable showdown game, they
go to Death Valley after an off week. The only other challenge
will come in the SEC title game. It's all in the cards
for Tim Tebow & Co. but this time the Big 12 foe will be too much.
3. Oklahoma
Returning starters: 6 offense / 9
defense
Heisman winner Sam Bradford established his place in Sooner lore when
he joined three other would-be top draft picks in returning to
Norman. Last year's runner-up has the talent to get over the hump
and they have a very respectable schedule. BYU on a neutral site,
Tulsa and at Miami go along with conference road trips to Kansas,
Nebraska and Texas Tech. But the one biggie is the annual
showdown in the Cotton Bowl. The lynchpin game of the '09 CFB
campaign is OU-Texas. We go with UT because we
couldn't answer
the question: when was the last time Oklahoma won a close game?
October 17 in Dallas will be a slobberknocker and that's just not the
kind of game Bob Stoops wins anymore.
4. California
Returning starters: 7 offense / 8
defense
If anyone
is ever going to dethrone USC in the Pac 10, this is it. And,
Jeff Tedford's Golden Bears have the firepower to make it happen.
They host Maryland and go to Minnesota in the non-conference - one of
the few BCS teams to play two BCS foes outside of their
conference. In the Pac 10, they travel to Oregon in
September. If they survive the Ducks, then they get USC, Oregon
State and Arizona all in Berkley. Cal's strength will be their
ground attack as RB Jahvid Best plows through opponents behind a
veteran offensive line. Not only will the Bears capture the
league crown and win the Rose Bowl, but Best will be a Heisman finalist.
5. Ohio State
Returning starters: 5 offense / 8
defense
This may
be too low for the Buckeyes. Their Sept. 12 showdown with USC is
the best interleague game of the season. It's a good matchup for
Brutus and, after that, their fate will boil down to a home game versus
Illinois and a November road game at Penn State. Jim Tressel is
undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the country and he has more than
enough ability to navigate this schedule. THE Ohio State will
lose one along the way but they get to Pasadena as the Big 10 champs.
6. Ole Miss
Returning starters: 9 offense / 8
defense
The
quandry with Ole Miss is that Houston Nutt's teams tend to excel when
nobody is looking. This year, the spotlight is squarely focused
on The
Grove. The Rebels have a challenging schedule, but they have the talent
to win the SEC West. QB Jevan Snead will lead Colonel Reb &
Co. on a Thursday night road trip to South Carolina and they host Bama,
Arkansas and LSU. They miss Georgia and Florida from the East, so
they have the inside track to Atlanta for the conference championship
game, which they will lose.
7. Virginia Tech
Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense
Just like
the Buckeyes, this may be too low for Virginia Tech. They will
beat Alabama on opening weekend, travel to Georgia Tech in league play
and get North Carolina at home. GT and UNC are winnable
games. Their trap game is a Thursday night contest at East
Carolina, who beat the Hokies in 2008. If they survive the ACC
mine field, ECU will be their downfall. But, if there was anyone
that could run the table
- outside of the top three - the Hokies and Ohio State are two that
could make a run at a spot in the national title game.
8. LSU
Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense
The Bayou
Bengals made strides at the end of last year, including an impressive
bowl performance. Their non-conference is a waste of fans' time
and effort. The SEC slate poses a significant challenge for LSU
with road games at Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama and the home showdown
versus Florida. We believe the Tigers will win at least two of
those four games. The real question is whether they win the SEC
West. Les Miles' crew will lose at Ole Miss, so they'll need help
to win the division.
9. TCU
Returning starters: 7 offense / 4
defense
Will TCU
run the table? No. Can a non-BCS team go to a BCS bowl with
one loss? Absolutely! While their non-BCS brethren go out
of their way to play an easy schedule (see Boise State), the Horned
Frogs are doing it up right. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson
are combined with playing at BYU and hosting Utah in Fort Worth.
Gary Patterson's Frogs have the talent to win the Mountain West and
earn an automatic BCS berth, despite having a loss. This will
prove once and for all the value of playing a good schedule.
10. USC
Returning starters: 9 offense / 2
defense
Last year,
the Men of Troy were all about lockdown
defense. With so
many defensive starters leaving, 2009 was to be all about their
offense. Then,
Mark Sanchez left early. We simply can't get past the loss of the
offensive and defensive coordinators, the attrition
and the schedule. They go to Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and
Oregon. USC will lose at least two games and their streak of Pac
10 titles comes to a halt. For the first time since 2001, Pete
Carroll will have to prepare his team for a non-BCS bowl.
11. Oklahoma State
Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense
Expectations
are extremely high for Oklahoma State. Their offensive firepower
from last year returns and, with the addition of veteran defensive
coordinator Bill Young, the Cowboys have everything in place to have a
banner year. Georgia comes to town to christen the first game of
their completed stadium and the rest of the non-conference should be
nothing but Ws. The conference slate is set up for fireworks as
they host Texas and travel to Oklahoma. If OSU gets by Georgia,
we still feel they'll fall to the Horns and Sooners. But, a win
over Texas could set up a showdown in Norman on Thanksgiving weekend
for the Big 12 South title.
12. Rutgers
Returning starters: 10 offense / 6
defense
The Big
East is wide open and the Birthplace of Football is the best of the
bunch. Greg Schiano's biggest challenge will be to find a
quarterback. When that gets settled, the experienced offensive unit
will team up with a stout defense and lead the State University of New
Jersey to a BCS bowl. The schedule sets up nicely for the Scarlet
Knights as they get Cincinnati, Pitt, South Florida and West Virginia
in Piscataway. Their non-conference is highlighted by a road game
at Maryland. In the end, Rutgers will again be one of the
headline stories of 2009 and they will ring in the New Year in Miami at
the Orange Bowl.
13. Notre Dame
Returning starters: 10 offense / 7
defense
When we
look at the number of returnees in South Bend, it's possible to be
swept up in the experience. But, it's difficult to place more
faith in the Irish. The reason they rank so high is strictly
because of their schedule. Opponents that have been tough in
recent years will be down in 2009. Their opener versus Nevada
will tell us a lot about ND. It's a losable game and their
defense will be tested by the Wolfpack. The swing games will be
at
Michigan and then home against Michigan State. They could go
anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0 to start the season. We believe they
will win at least two and will be setting up to host USC. At Pitt
and at Stanford in November will be testy. At the end of it all,
Charlie Weis just misses a return to the BCS as Notre Dame loses at
least three.
14. Alabama
Returning starters: 4 offense / 9
defense
Defensively,
the Tide will be as good as any unit in the SEC. However, offense
is where the question marks lie. The loss of a 4-year starting
quarterback cannot be undervalued. Combine that with the
attrition on
the offensive line and some key skill players and the mountain is just
too steep to climb for Bama. Their opener in Atlanta
versus
Virginia Tech is a great showdown and a huge challenge for Julio Jones
& Crew. The conference slate does not include Florida but
they have to travel to Ole Miss and Auburn while hosting LSU.
While they could surprise and win the West, we foresee a date in
Orlando for the Capital One Bowl.
15. Georgia Tech
Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense
The option
is alive and well on The Flats and we are a sucker for Paul Johnson's
offense. He is the best playcaller in the game and the Jackets
have a full year of experience under their belts. However, their
schedule is tough. In non-conference, they host Georgia and go to
Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. That's three SEC foes,
people! No other BCS teams play three
BCS opponents in their non-conference. Kudos to Buzz! In
the ACC, we'll know if
they'll be a league contender by the time they get out of
September. They play Clemson and are at Miami on back-to-back
Thursdays followed by a visit from North Carolina. The trip to
Florida State will be tough and then they get Virginia Tech in Bobby
Dodd Stadium. With 19 of their 22 starters being underclassmen,
we feel 2010 will be a monumental year for the Ramblin' Wreck.
16. North Carolina
Returning starters: 6 offense / 9
defense
The
Tar Heels aren't just a basketball school. Butch Davis is
building a solid program and they are a contender for the ACC
title. After facing East Carolina in the non-conference, they
have Florida State at home and go to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech,
Boston College and N.C. State. Those four road games pose serious
threats the Heels. If the offense comes along to the
level of the defense, UNC has a shot at a spot in the ACC title game.
17. Oregon
Returning starters: 5 offense / 5
defense
The Ducks
have the schedule to make tons of noise on the national scene.
The question is whether they can (a) overcome a coaching change and (b)
handle the attrition. Oregon kicks off the 2009 college season
with a trip to Boise State. They will get revenge on the Broncos
and expectations will be reset. Autzen is a tough place for
visitors and they get Cal and USC in Eugene. We predict a loss to
the Bears but a win over the Trojans. The O will falter down the
stretch, thus leading to their spot in our poll.
18. Boise State
Returning starters: 6 offense / 5
defense
There is a
notion that Boise State should be accepted as a big boy. Even
their school president whined to Congress, citing their undefeated
seasons. Our response? If you want to be taken seriously,
then start acting like you belong. The Broncos' schedule is a
one-game season if there ever was one and that one game is an ideal
setting. They get Oregon on the smurf turf on Sept. 3.
While a team like Florida plays Florida State and then must get through
the SEC, BSU must "navigate" through the WAC, which has become a league
that is Boise and The Eight Dwarfs. They will lose to Oregon and
then
fall to a conference foe before playing another home game in the bowl
season.
19. Utah
Returning starters: 5 offense / 7
defense
Utah had
their best season in history last year. They will follow that up
with a competitive run in the Mountain West race. Just like
Alabama, though, you can't discount the loss of an experienced signal
caller. Returning so few will make it tough on the Utes. In
non-conference, they go to Oregon and host Louisville and then must go
to TCU and BYU in league play.
20. Penn State
Returning starters: 6 offense / 4
defense
The
resurgence in Happy Valley the last few years has put
Penn State back
in the national talk. This year poses significant challenges for
JoePa. They have the best quarterback/running back tandem in the
Big 10, but they lost too many key skill players. PSU's saving
grace is their comically-soft
non-conference and the sequence of Big 10 games. Road trips to
Illinois and Michigan set up a home showdown with Ohio State. If
they can hold serve at Beaver Stadium, then they'll win the conference,
go to the Rose and finish higher than we have them here.
21. Minnesota
Returning starters: 10 offense / 9
defense
The
Gophers worked their way into the polls in October last year.
However, their last-minute loss to Northwestern derailed the
train. They have the returning talent to follow up last season's
bowl trip with a strong performance in conference play. As for
their schedule, the Golden Gophers open at Syracuse followed by home
games versus Air Force and Cal in the brand new, on-campus, open-air
stadium. The four-game stretch in October/November at Penn State,
at Ohio State, Michigan State at home and Illinois at home will
determine their fate. We think they win 2 of the 4 and find their
way into a solid bowl.
22. East Carolina
Returning starters: 10 offense / 9
defense
Kudos to
Skip Holtz for putting together a schedule that would make Boise run
and hide. The Purple Pirates go to West Virginia and North
Carolina in the first month of the season and then host Virginia Tech
on a Thursday night in November. If they can find a way to go 2-1
in those three, then it's not out of the question that ECU will be in
the BCS hunt. One thing we're sure of, they will once again win
Conference USA.
23. South Florida
Returning starters: 5 offense / 6
defense
Many will
say this is too high and they may be right. South Florida lost a
lot of talent, but they have what it takes to be a player in the Big
East. In non-conference, they go to Florida State and get Miami
at home. In conference, Cincinnati and West Virginia will both
visit Tampa and they go on the road to play Pitt and Rutgers. The
schedule will be too much to overcome to capture the league crown but
there will be reason for Bull fans to get their horns up.
24. Nebraska
Returning starters: 6 offense / 7
defense
The
Children of the Corn are desperate to be nationally relevant again and
we believe it won't happen this year. Included in their attrition
was their QB Joe Ganz, who made the Husker offense go last year.
NU hosts three Sun Belt foes in the non-conference and they travel to
Virginia Tech. Their hopes of recapturing the Big 12 North will
rely heavily on a Thursday night road trip to Missouri and a visit to
Lawrence to play Kansas. They also host Oklahoma and travel to
Baylor, a game that will provide a serious test. The North will
once again be painted with parity and even though they will finish in
the Top 25 - ahead of KU and Mizzou - the Big Red will not win the
division.
25. Florida State
Returning starters: 9 offense / 5
defense
When will Florida State get back to their usual
form? That's the burning
question. Well, it won't be this year. While the Seminoles
fight will not be a pushover, the 2009 schedule presents several tough
tests - eight to be exact. They host Miami on Labor Day Monday
and soon travel to BYU, followed by a visit from South Florida.
Of the remaining tests, only one (Georgia Tech) is in the friendly
confines of Doak Campbell Stadium. The road challenges are trips
to Boston College, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Florida.
But what about these...?
Clemson
Returning starters: 9 offense / 5
defense
Clemson is
one of those programs that tend to perform well when nobody's looking
and flail when all eyes are on them. With the other teams in the
ACC getting the attention, this year's Tigers have the makeup to put
together a run. They return RB C.J. Spiller, QB Willy Korn and
the most experienced offensive and defensive lines in the
conference. Football is won in the trenches and if they rub Howard's Rock just right, then the Esso
Club will be a fun place to be
on Saturdays.
BYU
Returning starters: 4 offense / 8
defense
Many are
high on Brigham Young, mainly because of the return of QB Max
Hall. But, the overall loss of offensive firepower can't be
overlooked. No doubt the Cougars will be a player in the Mountain
West. But, they lack the athleticism to surprise Oklahoma and
probably won't be able to get it done when Florida State visits
Provo. In conference, they get TCU and Utah at Lavell Edwards
Stadium but they'll still finish the league on the outside looking in.
Kansas
Returning starters: 7 offense / 7
defense
The
Fightin' Manginos will capture the Big 12 North behind the gritty
talent of QB Todd Reesing. The reason Kansas doesn't finish in
our Top 25 is because of their schedule. They go to Texas and
Texas Tech while hosting Oklahoma from the Big 12 South. They get
Nebraska at home and play Missouri in Kansas City on Thanksgiving
weekend, which is why they end up in Arlington on Dec. 5. Three
conference losses, a loss in the league title game and a bowl loss land
them out of the final coaches poll.
Miami
Returning starters: 8 offense / 7
defense
Just like Florida State, people want to know when Miami will get back
to being Miami. And just like FSU, the Canes still ain't
there. Nobody in the country plays a tougher first four games of
the season than the U as they go to Florida State on Labor Day Monday,
host Georgia Tech on a Thursday night, travel to Virginia Tech and get
Oklahoma at home. At best, Miami will be 1-3 after that start
with a very real possibility of starting out oh-fer and throwing up the
white flag. They also travel to North Carolina and South
Florida. If we're right about the Canes, then this very well may
be Randy Shannon's swan song on South Beach.
Arkansas
Returning starters: 8 offense / 11
defense
When
you're considering surprises in the SEC, look no further than the
Hogs. Year Two of the Petrino Era includes returning experience
and Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett. The fact that all 11
defensive starters are back might actually be the bad news. The
schedule is no cakewalk with road games at the conference's four best
teams (Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU). The game that will
determine their direction is in Fayetteville versus Georgia in
September. Our prediction: 8 wins and Woooo, Pig Sooie!
Iowa
Returning starters: 7 offense / 8
defense
The
Hawkeyes celebrated one of the most important wins of the '08 season as
they knocked off unbeaten Penn State in November. There's a
reason Kirk Ferentz is entering his 11th season near the Pentacrest. He can coach and he has
the returnees to have a good
team. The challenge lies in the schedule. They host Arizona
in non-conference and then things get tough. Their Big 10 slate
is highlighted by road games at Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State
and Ohio State. If Iowa finds a way to win two of those, then a
finish in the Top 25 is very possible.
N.C. State
Returning starters: 8 offense / 7
defense
Very
quietly, Tom O'Brien is creating a Wolfpack resurgence. NC State
had some bright moments in 2008 and they return one of the top
quarterbacks in the ACC. If the Pack doesn't get to eight wins,
you can count on them winning a game or two that impacts the conference
race.
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