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The Way
They'll Finish By
AutumnSpectacle.com staff E-mail
Follow AutumnSpectacle onJune 30, 2009 The
drama that is college football is unique and unmatched.
It's cut-throat. It's intense. It's unexpected. One
week's surprises give way to a new storyline, which will be redirected
when the next week plays out. The splendor of the Autumn
Spectacle unfolds beginning on Labor Day weekend and doesn't come to a
close until Championship Saturday. And then, there's still the
traditional bowl season... College
football places a premium on playing a good
schedule and winning them
all - or else. The
2008 season was living proof that if you lose, then you're taking your
chances. Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, USC, Penn State and
Texas Tech were all forced to await their fates after faltering during
the autumn. But that
season is over and hope springs eternal. What will happen in 2009
- the 140th edition of the Grand Ol' Game? Before we
reveal our top 25, let us clarify that this is not a preseason
poll. You can get those anywhere. We're telling you where
teams will end up in the final USA Today Coaches Poll on January 8,
2010. This is our fourth annual Top 25 - The Way They'll Finish. Our track
record has been respectable and we've been known to predict the turning
point games of the year. For instance, before teams even reported
for two-a-days last year, we told you that Oregon State would knock off
top-ranked USC on a Thursday night in Corvallis, that Tulsa would
garner national attention and that JoePa's Nittany Lions would once
again be a player in the national title hunt. In 2007, we nailed it. While most publications picked USC, we boldly proclaimed LSU would bring it all home and they held up their end by capturing their second Crystal Ball in five seasons. Last season, we were oh-so-close again. During the 2008 summer, we predicted Oklahoma would knock off Florida in the BCS title game and allow Bob Stoops to get the recently-attached Big Game Monkey off his back. The Gators kept us from accurately predicting our second straight national champion. Now, it’s time to look at 2009. At AutumnSpectacle.com, we take all factors into account: returning starters, returning coaches, schedules, schedule sequences, mascots (live vs. costumed), battle cries, stadiums, fight songs, the ever-so-vital traditions, karma, mojo, juju and the alignment of the stars in the universe. After taking it all into consideration, it is clear that the Eyes of Texas are upon us. So, get your Hook 'Em sign ready. The rest of the country will again understand that - in the 2009 college football season - if you mess with Bevo, then you'll get his Horns. 1. Texas  Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defense2009 feels eerily like 2005 all over again. An epic team who pundits can't say enough about are the prohibitive favorites to win it all. Back then, it was USC and this year it's Florida. Both times, it's a burnt orange serenade inside the Rose Bowl that closes out the college football season. With Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley and the rest, the Longhorns are primed for a national title run. UT cruises through a sugary-sweet cupcake schedule that would make Dolly Madison jealous. And similar to their inevitable foe in Pasadena, the Horns only have a couple of potential pitfalls. After they exact revenge on Oklahoma for 2008's BCS rankings, their entire fate comes down to their trip to Oklahoma State on Halloween. A win there sends them to an undefeated autumn. If they don't survive, then there is a serious possibility of a rerun of last season's 3-way Big 12 South tie and BCS rankings tiebreaker. We believe Bevo finishes it off this time and the Horn Nation will be ready to elect Mack Brown as governor despite his incessant whining. 2. Florida  Returning starters: 8 offense / 11
defenseConventional wisdom picks the Gators to capture their third title in four years. And, we believe UF will make it back to the championship game. Florida has been remarkably consistent under Urban Meyer and this year will be no different. His spread option attack will be undergirded by a fierce defense that amazingly returns ALL 22 PLAYERS FROM LAST YEAR'S TWO-DEEP! To go along with the talent level is the schedule. While Florida State continues to be iffy, the remainder of the Gators' non-conference is, as always, marshmallow soft. Al E. Gator doesn't have to face Ole Miss or Alabama in conference play and the SEC East is a one-team division. So, they have a one-game season: at LSU on October 10. Not only is that their lone predictable showdown game, they go to Death Valley after an off week. The only other challenge will come in the SEC title game. It's all in the cards for Tim Tebow & Co. but this time the Big 12 foe will be too much. 3. Oklahoma  Returning starters: 6 offense / 9
defenseHeisman winner Sam Bradford established his place in Sooner lore when he joined three other would-be top draft picks in returning to Norman. Last year's runner-up has the talent to get over the hump and they have a very respectable schedule. BYU on a neutral site, Tulsa and at Miami go along with conference road trips to Kansas, Nebraska and Texas Tech. But the one biggie is the annual showdown in the Cotton Bowl. The lynchpin game of the '09 CFB campaign is OU-Texas. We go with UT because we couldn't answer the question: when was the last time Oklahoma won a close game? October 17 in Dallas will be a slobberknocker and that's just not the kind of game Bob Stoops wins anymore.  Returning starters: 7 offense / 8
defenseIf anyone is ever going to dethrone USC in the Pac 10, this is it. And, Jeff Tedford's Golden Bears have the firepower to make it happen. They host Maryland and go to Minnesota in the non-conference - one of the few BCS teams to play two BCS foes outside of their conference. In the Pac 10, they travel to Oregon in September. If they survive the Ducks, then they get USC, Oregon State and Arizona all in Berkley. Cal's strength will be their ground attack as RB Jahvid Best plows through opponents behind a veteran offensive line. Not only will the Bears capture the league crown and win the Rose Bowl, but Best will be a Heisman finalist.  Returning starters: 5 offense / 8
defenseThis may be too low for the Buckeyes. Their Sept. 12 showdown with USC is the best interleague game of the season. It's a good matchup for Brutus and, after that, their fate will boil down to a home game versus Illinois and a November road game at Penn State. Jim Tressel is undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the country and he has more than enough ability to navigate this schedule. THE Ohio State will lose one along the way but they get to Pasadena as the Big 10 champs.  Returning starters: 9 offense / 8
defenseThe quandry with Ole Miss is that Houston Nutt's teams tend to excel when nobody is looking. This year, the spotlight is squarely focused on The Grove. The Rebels have a challenging schedule, but they have the talent to win the SEC West. QB Jevan Snead will lead Colonel Reb & Co. on a Thursday night road trip to South Carolina and they host Bama, Arkansas and LSU. They miss Georgia and Florida from the East, so they have the inside track to Atlanta for the conference championship game, which they will lose.  7. Virginia TechReturning starters: 9 offense / 7 defense Just like the Buckeyes, this may be too low for Virginia Tech. They will beat Alabama on opening weekend, travel to Georgia Tech in league play and get North Carolina at home. GT and UNC are winnable games. Their trap game is a Thursday night contest at East Carolina, who beat the Hokies in 2008. If they survive the ACC mine field, ECU will be their downfall. But, if there was anyone that could run the table - outside of the top three - the Hokies and Ohio State are two that could make a run at a spot in the national title game. 8. LSU  Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defenseThe Bayou Bengals made strides at the end of last year, including an impressive bowl performance. Their non-conference is a waste of fans' time and effort. The SEC slate poses a significant challenge for LSU with road games at Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama and the home showdown versus Florida. We believe the Tigers will win at least two of those four games. The real question is whether they win the SEC West. Les Miles' crew will lose at Ole Miss, so they'll need help to win the division.  Returning starters: 7 offense / 4
defenseWill TCU run the table? No. Can a non-BCS team go to a BCS bowl with one loss? Absolutely! While their non-BCS brethren go out of their way to play an easy schedule (see Boise State), the Horned Frogs are doing it up right. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson are combined with playing at BYU and hosting Utah in Fort Worth. Gary Patterson's Frogs have the talent to win the Mountain West and earn an automatic BCS berth, despite having a loss. This will prove once and for all the value of playing a good schedule. 10. USC  Returning starters: 9 offense / 2
defenseLast year, the Men of Troy were all about lockdown defense. With so many defensive starters leaving, 2009 was to be all about their offense. Then, Mark Sanchez left early. We simply can't get past the loss of the offensive and defensive coordinators, the attrition and the schedule. They go to Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon. USC will lose at least two games and their streak of Pac 10 titles comes to a halt. For the first time since 2001, Pete Carroll will have to prepare his team for a non-BCS bowl.  Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defenseExpectations are extremely high for Oklahoma State. Their offensive firepower from last year returns and, with the addition of veteran defensive coordinator Bill Young, the Cowboys have everything in place to have a banner year. Georgia comes to town to christen the first game of their completed stadium and the rest of the non-conference should be nothing but Ws. The conference slate is set up for fireworks as they host Texas and travel to Oklahoma. If OSU gets by Georgia, we still feel they'll fall to the Horns and Sooners. But, a win over Texas could set up a showdown in Norman on Thanksgiving weekend for the Big 12 South title. 12. Rutgers  Returning starters: 10 offense / 6
defenseThe Big East is wide open and the Birthplace of Football is the best of the bunch. Greg Schiano's biggest challenge will be to find a quarterback. When that gets settled, the experienced offensive unit will team up with a stout defense and lead the State University of New Jersey to a BCS bowl. The schedule sets up nicely for the Scarlet Knights as they get Cincinnati, Pitt, South Florida and West Virginia in Piscataway. Their non-conference is highlighted by a road game at Maryland. In the end, Rutgers will again be one of the headline stories of 2009 and they will ring in the New Year in Miami at the Orange Bowl.  Returning starters: 10 offense / 7
defenseWhen we look at the number of returnees in South Bend, it's possible to be swept up in the experience. But, it's difficult to place more faith in the Irish. The reason they rank so high is strictly because of their schedule. Opponents that have been tough in recent years will be down in 2009. Their opener versus Nevada will tell us a lot about ND. It's a losable game and their defense will be tested by the Wolfpack. The swing games will be at Michigan and then home against Michigan State. They could go anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0 to start the season. We believe they will win at least two and will be setting up to host USC. At Pitt and at Stanford in November will be testy. At the end of it all, Charlie Weis just misses a return to the BCS as Notre Dame loses at least three. 14. Alabama  Returning starters: 4 offense / 9
defenseDefensively, the Tide will be as good as any unit in the SEC. However, offense is where the question marks lie. The loss of a 4-year starting quarterback cannot be undervalued. Combine that with the attrition on the offensive line and some key skill players and the mountain is just too steep to climb for Bama. Their opener in Atlanta versus Virginia Tech is a great showdown and a huge challenge for Julio Jones & Crew. The conference slate does not include Florida but they have to travel to Ole Miss and Auburn while hosting LSU. While they could surprise and win the West, we foresee a date in Orlando for the Capital One Bowl.  Returning starters: 9 offense / 7
defenseThe option is alive and well on The Flats and we are a sucker for Paul Johnson's offense. He is the best playcaller in the game and the Jackets have a full year of experience under their belts. However, their schedule is tough. In non-conference, they host Georgia and go to Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. That's three SEC foes, people! No other BCS teams play three BCS opponents in their non-conference. Kudos to Buzz! In the ACC, we'll know if they'll be a league contender by the time they get out of September. They play Clemson and are at Miami on back-to-back Thursdays followed by a visit from North Carolina. The trip to Florida State will be tough and then they get Virginia Tech in Bobby Dodd Stadium. With 19 of their 22 starters being underclassmen, we feel 2010 will be a monumental year for the Ramblin' Wreck.  Returning starters: 6 offense / 9
defenseThe Tar Heels aren't just a basketball school. Butch Davis is building a solid program and they are a contender for the ACC title. After facing East Carolina in the non-conference, they have Florida State at home and go to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Boston College and N.C. State. Those four road games pose serious threats the Heels. If the offense comes along to the level of the defense, UNC has a shot at a spot in the ACC title game.  Returning starters: 5 offense / 5
defenseThe Ducks have the schedule to make tons of noise on the national scene. The question is whether they can (a) overcome a coaching change and (b) handle the attrition. Oregon kicks off the 2009 college season with a trip to Boise State. They will get revenge on the Broncos and expectations will be reset. Autzen is a tough place for visitors and they get Cal and USC in Eugene. We predict a loss to the Bears but a win over the Trojans. The O will falter down the stretch, thus leading to their spot in our poll.  Returning starters: 6 offense / 5
defenseThere is a notion that Boise State should be accepted as a big boy. Even their school president whined to Congress, citing their undefeated seasons. Our response? If you want to be taken seriously, then start acting like you belong. The Broncos' schedule is a one-game season if there ever was one and that one game is an ideal setting. They get Oregon on the smurf turf on Sept. 3. While a team like Florida plays Florida State and then must get through the SEC, BSU must "navigate" through the WAC, which has become a league that is Boise and The Eight Dwarfs. They will lose to Oregon and then fall to a conference foe before playing another home game in the bowl season.  Returning starters: 5 offense / 7
defenseUtah had their best season in history last year. They will follow that up with a competitive run in the Mountain West race. Just like Alabama, though, you can't discount the loss of an experienced signal caller. Returning so few will make it tough on the Utes. In non-conference, they go to Oregon and host Louisville and then must go to TCU and BYU in league play.  Returning starters: 6 offense / 4
defenseThe resurgence in Happy Valley the last few years has put Penn State back in the national talk. This year poses significant challenges for JoePa. They have the best quarterback/running back tandem in the Big 10, but they lost too many key skill players. PSU's saving grace is their comically-soft non-conference and the sequence of Big 10 games. Road trips to Illinois and Michigan set up a home showdown with Ohio State. If they can hold serve at Beaver Stadium, then they'll win the conference, go to the Rose and finish higher than we have them here.  Returning starters: 10 offense / 9
defenseThe Gophers worked their way into the polls in October last year. However, their last-minute loss to Northwestern derailed the train. They have the returning talent to follow up last season's bowl trip with a strong performance in conference play. As for their schedule, the Golden Gophers open at Syracuse followed by home games versus Air Force and Cal in the brand new, on-campus, open-air stadium. The four-game stretch in October/November at Penn State, at Ohio State, Michigan State at home and Illinois at home will determine their fate. We think they win 2 of the 4 and find their way into a solid bowl.  Returning starters: 10 offense / 9
defenseKudos to Skip Holtz for putting together a schedule that would make Boise run and hide. The Purple Pirates go to West Virginia and North Carolina in the first month of the season and then host Virginia Tech on a Thursday night in November. If they can find a way to go 2-1 in those three, then it's not out of the question that ECU will be in the BCS hunt. One thing we're sure of, they will once again win Conference USA. 23. South Florida  Returning starters: 5 offense / 6
defenseMany will say this is too high and they may be right. South Florida lost a lot of talent, but they have what it takes to be a player in the Big East. In non-conference, they go to Florida State and get Miami at home. In conference, Cincinnati and West Virginia will both visit Tampa and they go on the road to play Pitt and Rutgers. The schedule will be too much to overcome to capture the league crown but there will be reason for Bull fans to get their horns up.  Returning starters: 6 offense / 7
defenseThe Children of the Corn are desperate to be nationally relevant again and we believe it won't happen this year. Included in their attrition was their QB Joe Ganz, who made the Husker offense go last year. NU hosts three Sun Belt foes in the non-conference and they travel to Virginia Tech. Their hopes of recapturing the Big 12 North will rely heavily on a Thursday night road trip to Missouri and a visit to Lawrence to play Kansas. They also host Oklahoma and travel to Baylor, a game that will provide a serious test. The North will once again be painted with parity and even though they will finish in the Top 25 - ahead of KU and Mizzou - the Big Red will not win the division. 25. Florida State  Returning starters: 9 offense / 5
defenseWhen will Florida State get back to their usual form? That's the burning question. Well, it won't be this year. While the Seminoles fight will not be a pushover, the 2009 schedule presents several tough tests - eight to be exact. They host Miami on Labor Day Monday and soon travel to BYU, followed by a visit from South Florida. Of the remaining tests, only one (Georgia Tech) is in the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium. The road challenges are trips to Boston College, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Florida. But what about these...? Clemson  Returning starters: 9 offense / 5
defenseClemson is one of those programs that tend to perform well when nobody's looking and flail when all eyes are on them. With the other teams in the ACC getting the attention, this year's Tigers have the makeup to put together a run. They return RB C.J. Spiller, QB Willy Korn and the most experienced offensive and defensive lines in the conference. Football is won in the trenches and if they rub Howard's Rock just right, then the Esso Club will be a fun place to be on Saturdays. BYU  Returning starters: 4 offense / 8
defenseMany are high on Brigham Young, mainly because of the return of QB Max Hall. But, the overall loss of offensive firepower can't be overlooked. No doubt the Cougars will be a player in the Mountain West. But, they lack the athleticism to surprise Oklahoma and probably won't be able to get it done when Florida State visits Provo. In conference, they get TCU and Utah at Lavell Edwards Stadium but they'll still finish the league on the outside looking in. Kansas  Returning starters: 7 offense / 7
defenseThe Fightin' Manginos will capture the Big 12 North behind the gritty talent of QB Todd Reesing. The reason Kansas doesn't finish in our Top 25 is because of their schedule. They go to Texas and Texas Tech while hosting Oklahoma from the Big 12 South. They get Nebraska at home and play Missouri in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, which is why they end up in Arlington on Dec. 5. Three conference losses, a loss in the league title game and a bowl loss land them out of the final coaches poll.  MiamiReturning starters: 8 offense / 7 defense Just like Florida State, people want to know when Miami will get back to being Miami. And just like FSU, the Canes still ain't there. Nobody in the country plays a tougher first four games of the season than the U as they go to Florida State on Labor Day Monday, host Georgia Tech on a Thursday night, travel to Virginia Tech and get Oklahoma at home. At best, Miami will be 1-3 after that start with a very real possibility of starting out oh-fer and throwing up the white flag. They also travel to North Carolina and South Florida. If we're right about the Canes, then this very well may be Randy Shannon's swan song on South Beach.  ArkansasReturning starters: 8 offense / 11 defense When you're considering surprises in the SEC, look no further than the Hogs. Year Two of the Petrino Era includes returning experience and Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett. The fact that all 11 defensive starters are back might actually be the bad news. The schedule is no cakewalk with road games at the conference's four best teams (Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU). The game that will determine their direction is in Fayetteville versus Georgia in September. Our prediction: 8 wins and Woooo, Pig Sooie! Iowa  Returning starters: 7 offense / 8
defenseThe Hawkeyes celebrated one of the most important wins of the '08 season as they knocked off unbeaten Penn State in November. There's a reason Kirk Ferentz is entering his 11th season near the Pentacrest. He can coach and he has the returnees to have a good team. The challenge lies in the schedule. They host Arizona in non-conference and then things get tough. Their Big 10 slate is highlighted by road games at Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State. If Iowa finds a way to win two of those, then a finish in the Top 25 is very possible. N.C. State  Returning starters: 8 offense / 7
defenseVery quietly, Tom O'Brien is creating a Wolfpack resurgence. NC State had some bright moments in 2008 and they return one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC. If the Pack doesn't get to eight wins, you can count on them winning a game or two that impacts the conference race.  |
